People seem confused by this rally. Really a rally on top of a Fed induced (to a very large extent) bull market extending back many years. How can this be, some wonder? Trump is bad news. How could the market tick up, solidly and definitively, in the wake of Trump’s election?
My feeling, and it is only this, and it is sure to contradicted by many a CNBC Squawk Box special guest, is that investors are just relieved that Obama is gone and that America dodged the Hillary bullet. That’s not all of it. But that’s a big part.
Now, many in the financial press will argue that the market is betting on tax reform and/or big investments in infrastructure. To a degree I am sure this is true, but both agenda items have been pushed down the road and yet the market continues the trajectory up.
It should also be noted that the only REAL pullback since the beginning of the Trump era happened when it looked briefly like the Dems might actually have something on Trump (in mid-May). Then the market digested the news, took a good look at Comey and then went on.
Will the rally continue? Who knows? If I knew I’d probably be driving that Porsche 911 Carrera I’ve had my eye on since I was 7.
Some people (people we respect) warn of a catastrophic pullback. This is certainly reasonable given that the long term bull market we’ve seen since the depths of The Great Recession is full of Fed “magic.” The question is whether the fundamentals have filled in over the years and replaced the “magic.” (This is not by design by the way, the Fed was just shooting in the dark during the recession to a large degree and likely extended the length of The Great Recession just as it did the Great Depression.) We’ll see in the months and years ahead.
Another very important point is that there are war clouds gathering at this moment is a way unlike anything in my lifetime. There are now a number of flashpoints, the center node being Syria, but Qatar, the (apparent) ramming of the Fitzgerald off of Japan, North Korea, the South China Sea, the Baltics, all are of concern. If things got hot things could get ugly quickly in the markets.
But regardless, one thing is absolutely remarkable. The media, the broader media, refuse to cover the current and historic rally. A profound uptick in the markets and nothing, nothing but crickets from the likes of MSNBC, CNN, and fellow travelers.
(From The Gateway Pundit)
* The DOW daily closing stock market average has risen 17% since the election on November 8th. (On November 9th the DOW closed at 18,332 – yesterday DOW closed at 21,528 for another all time record closing high).
* Since the Inauguration on January 20th the DOW is up 9%. (It was at 19,827 at January 20th.)
* The DOW took just 66 days to climb from 19,000 to above 21,000, the fastest 2,000 point run ever. The DOW closed above 19,000 for the first time on November 22nd and closed above 21,000 on March 1st.
* The DOW closed above 20,000 on January 25th and the March 1st rally matched the fastest-ever 1,000point increase in the DOW at 24 days.
* On February 28th President Trump matched President Reagan’s 1987 record for most continuous closing high trading days when the DOW reached a new high for its 12th day in a row!
* The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have both set new all-time highs during this period.
* The US Stock Market gained $2 trillion in wealth since Trump was elected!
* The S&P 500 also broke $20 Trillion for the first time in its history.