…the Democrats will look up and realize that the black base they’ve taken for granted for decades might not be as enthusiastic as in the past. It’s not that they might vote for Trump. But they may not vote against him…
It should be remembered that in 2016 Trump got 8% of the African American vote, which is higher than Republican presidential candidates historically. And that was 2016. This next go round more black voters may actively pull for Trump. I don’t think 15-18% of the African-American vote is beyond possibility.
One of the ongoing tropes we see in the political press/punditry is that Trump is “stupid.” The guy’s not stupid. He’s doing all sorts of things (some we like, some we don’t) that other presidents have tried to do and failed. He’s made headway in the face of an all out attack from the Democrats and old media. From a purely political perspective one has to respect that.
We think Trump legitimately wants to make significant headway with black voters. That is certainly our sense. We think he likely really does care. We think he is doing electoral math with the idea that black voters matter to him. And we say that is very a good thing.
The Dems have long taken African American voters for granted, and the GOP, often because money tends to go to voters most likely to turn out, have too often written off the black vote.
While the Democratic Party is sleeping, focused on winning November’s midterms rather than uniting behind a single 2020 candidate to challenge Trump, the president is wooing black voters with the help of Kim Kardashian, who’s married to the Mad Rapper and has millions of Twitter followers, many of whom are black.
Trump is succeeding at something few people thought possible. He is getting some black people to compare him to Barack Obama. Obama didn’t get Alice Johnson out of jail. Obama didn’t pardon Jack Johnson, even though Ken Burns asked him to and produced an entire documentary explaining why.
Trump isn’t killing the Republican Party.
He is killing the Democratic Party.
As one must always say, we’ll see.