The Chicago Tribune Asks: “Why hasn’t the (border) story hurt Trump? (In the polls) We really don’t know”

This is an interesting little look into current Trump polling and the direction of the country generally. One would expect that with all the “splitting up of families” stories pouring out of the old media that the needle would have moved down a bit for Trump, who stands generally at about 40%+ approval.

Of course we are being assured that Mueller’s got some more bombshells for us to come. Senator Warner, told us to “buckle up” for coming news. OK, senator, we’re buckled. So who knows, maybe Mueller will drop a bomb like the Dems did with the Access Hollywood tape just before the last election. (That worked out well.) Maybe one of these bombs will move the needle away from Trump. Or maybe Trump really has the Dems. It is way too early to tell. We still put the Dems taking the House at 50/50.

(From The Chicago Tribune)

As I write this, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Trump enjoys an approval rating of 42.5 percent — a bit higher than in early June, and basically the best since his brief — and historically bad — honeymoon after taking office…

…Still, if there was a really major effect — say, a sudden 5 percentage point drop in approval — we almost certainly would know by now. If, on the other hand, the effect was small, such as a 1 percentage point loss, then it’s possible we’re missing a real effect.

Why hasn’t the story hurt Trump? We really don’t know, and beware anyone who claims to be doing anything more than speculating.

We will make a bit of a speculation here. The Red Hen incident probably works in Trump’s favor on multiple fronts. Maxine Waters popping off probably helps too.

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