TIMESTAMP THIS: CNN says “Every sign is pointing to a Democratic wave in November”

You heard it. CNN says the “blue” wave is a’gonna happen.


The Dems may indeed win the House in November. It could happen. It still feels 50/50 to us with now a slight (the slightest) of edges to the Republicans. But it could go either way. (And we are trying to be conservative in our analysis.) But CNN is pretty sure the House is going Dem as we see here.

We have one other TIMESTAMP going with the mid-terms. When Paul Ryan said he was retiring the same crowd was calling for a Dem win for sure then too. And they might be right.

If the Democrats do win we will run the timestamped posts. That’s only fair.

We are much more concerned with a Democratic loss however. The reactions will be WILD if that happens. Dems have been given the all clear on disconnecting from reality already. What happens if reality hits them hard in the face again?

But perhaps reality will strike another way this November.

(From CNN)

On Tuesday, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia moved 17(!) House seats in Democrats’ favor — eight of which went from a “leans Republican” rating to a “toss-up.” That means that of the 36 races rated as “toss-ups” by the Center of Politics, 34 are held by Republicans. Remember that Democrats only need a 23-seat pickup to regain the majority they lost in 2010.
“Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House,” concludes Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of UVA professor Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.” He adds later: “At this point, we see the Democrats with slightly better odds to get their required share of the ‘toss-ups’ based largely on the environment, but also because they appear to have well-funded and credible challengers in these districts that can capitalize on that environment.”
We and Sabato are both based in Charlottesville, VA and we have respect for Mr. Sabato who generally is not crazy in his predictions. This (on the left) was Mr. Sabato’s prediction for 2016. Not nuts, but solidly incorrect. We’ll see how he does this year.
On the right I also include our presidential race prediction for 2016. (September 15, 2016)

Screenshot: CenterForPolitics.org